A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
